President Biden’s poor polling numbers have raised questions about the possibility of a blowout victory by former President Trump in November, even as he grapples with his own political challenges in the wake of a conviction in a New York hush money trial.
A blowout wouldn’t look like the landslide reelection of President Ronald Reagan over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984. But it could mean Trump winning more Electoral College votes than expected by flipping most if not all of the states Biden won in 2020 — and even expanding the map by turning some unexpected states, like Minnesota or Virginia, red.
Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys from April and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll last month both had Trump leading Biden in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won each of those states except for North Carolina in 2020 en route to 306 electoral votes.
Candidates need 270 electoral votes to win. Biden won in 2020 with 306; Trump won in 2016 with 304; former President Obama won in 2012 with 332 and in 2008 with 365, winning states like Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in the process.
In a Quinnipiac survey before the verdict, 6 percent of Trump voters said they’d be less likely to vote for the former president if he was convicted.
A YouGov poll taken after the verdict found that 27 percent of independent voters were less likely to vote for Trump — but 21 percent were made more likely.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll found 50 percent of Americans thought Trump’s guilty verdict was correct, and 49 percent said he should end his presidential campaign as a result.
A presidential forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ currently predicts Trump has a 56 percent chance of winning the election, and national polling averages put the former president up by around 1 point.
At the same time, wars in Gaza and Ukraine are showing no end in sight, and developments on the international stage could roil things for Biden in the coming months.