538 is still 50/50 because they have a base assumption that it’s too early to tell anything. So the algorithm is pretty hardcoded to read 50/50 for another couple months.
We have the polling though and his battleground polling absolutely took a hit after the election. For example Biden either needs PA and one other state or all but one if he loses PA. So that’s a pretty hard requirement. He was basically even with Trump in PA the night of the debate. But now that gap is opening up, the wrong way. There are very clear indicators of a an impending catastrophe.
We’ve pivoted from “the debate was a CATASTROPHE look at these polls falling” to “how can you say Biden is still viable when he’s 2 points behind right after something majorly depressive to his numbers happened and there are only 4 months more to go”
It’s actually pretty impressive how seamless it went from caring deeply how much his poll numbers have dropped to caring deeply how they’re sitting at practically exactly the same level they were, which is slightly behind
Mozz, please don’t get bamboozled. One of this guys “keys” for his mathematical model is “Charisma”. That’s a stat he pulls out of his ass and pretty disqualifying in the world of statistical models. His claim to fame in predicting modern elections is ridiculous. Half the people I went to college with could predict the majority of races with reasonable accuracy. Obama McCain was probably the one toss up until the VP debate, which Palin lost to Biden really badly. Hillary is the one people like to point to, but people watching the numbers were shouting warnings at the democrats only to be called bernie bros.
Oh, I don’t give a shit about his “keys”. I was talking about the part I linked to - basically, why the fuck are you guys covering this like a normal presidential election instead of as an effort to hijack the presidency by a hostile and malevolent force that’s explicitly hostile to the whole American system and willing to kill to get its way. Especially since anyone in the media will be first in the Gulag line if it is able to come to power, it seems like an absurd and horrifyingly dangerous dereliction of the media’s responsibility.
Wow, I’ll be honest. I hit the stop button the second I saw him and this kind of attitude is exactly why. You may consider Trump to be a fascist con artist, but 74 million people did vote for him in 2020. The media are doing their job. And if they came out in such a partisan manner they would instantly lose the trust of anyone not a diehard democrat. Their job isn’t to ring alarm bells, it’s to faithfully report news. And they’ve done so, that’s why for example Trump had to distance himself from Project 2025.
His rant that they aren’t being partisan may feel good to you, but it shows a complete lack of understanding in what role the media plays in our democracy.
It’s still a projection to lose. Far too close for my taste, and if you look at the 270towin EC Projections Trump only needs 2 swing states at the least while Biden needs 3, Republicans have 12 victory outcomes to Democrats 9, 1 potential tie. It does not look good.
„Biden is projected to lose“ is spun a bit negatively for a 49-51 split, no?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
Basically it’s anyone’s game now, and it will come down to extremely few votes in the end.
538 is still 50/50 because they have a base assumption that it’s too early to tell anything. So the algorithm is pretty hardcoded to read 50/50 for another couple months.
We have the polling though and his battleground polling absolutely took a hit after the election. For example Biden either needs PA and one other state or all but one if he loses PA. So that’s a pretty hard requirement. He was basically even with Trump in PA the night of the debate. But now that gap is opening up, the wrong way. There are very clear indicators of a an impending catastrophe.
Sssshhhhh you’re fuckin up the narrative
We’ve pivoted from “the debate was a CATASTROPHE look at these polls falling” to “how can you say Biden is still viable when he’s 2 points behind right after something majorly depressive to his numbers happened and there are only 4 months more to go”
It’s actually pretty impressive how seamless it went from caring deeply how much his poll numbers have dropped to caring deeply how they’re sitting at practically exactly the same level they were, which is slightly behind
Also there’s this
Mozz, please don’t get bamboozled. One of this guys “keys” for his mathematical model is “Charisma”. That’s a stat he pulls out of his ass and pretty disqualifying in the world of statistical models. His claim to fame in predicting modern elections is ridiculous. Half the people I went to college with could predict the majority of races with reasonable accuracy. Obama McCain was probably the one toss up until the VP debate, which Palin lost to Biden really badly. Hillary is the one people like to point to, but people watching the numbers were shouting warnings at the democrats only to be called bernie bros.
Oh, I don’t give a shit about his “keys”. I was talking about the part I linked to - basically, why the fuck are you guys covering this like a normal presidential election instead of as an effort to hijack the presidency by a hostile and malevolent force that’s explicitly hostile to the whole American system and willing to kill to get its way. Especially since anyone in the media will be first in the Gulag line if it is able to come to power, it seems like an absurd and horrifyingly dangerous dereliction of the media’s responsibility.
Wow, I’ll be honest. I hit the stop button the second I saw him and this kind of attitude is exactly why. You may consider Trump to be a fascist con artist, but 74 million people did vote for him in 2020. The media are doing their job. And if they came out in such a partisan manner they would instantly lose the trust of anyone not a diehard democrat. Their job isn’t to ring alarm bells, it’s to faithfully report news. And they’ve done so, that’s why for example Trump had to distance himself from Project 2025.
His rant that they aren’t being partisan may feel good to you, but it shows a complete lack of understanding in what role the media plays in our democracy.
It’s still a projection to lose. Far too close for my taste, and if you look at the 270towin EC Projections Trump only needs 2 swing states at the least while Biden needs 3, Republicans have 12 victory outcomes to Democrats 9, 1 potential tie. It does not look good.