The actual sad truth is that unless the Russian people turn on Putin or it turns into their next Afghanistan, there is no path to victory for Ukraine. Russia is larger with more people and more resources. It may be extremely painful but they will win in the end if the war goes on long enough. That’s why NATO is treating Ukraine as a way to bleed Russia. The best case scenario is to turn it into a version of Afghanistan, so expensive in money and manpower that Russia is forced to leave. The next best scenario is to bleed Russia and destroy enough infrastructure in Ukraine that Russia cannot use it as a base of operations into Europe, cannot make use of it’s industrial capacity, and cannot sustain a military campaign until the next generation is old enough to rebuild the Russian military.

A negotiated peace where Russia gets to keep Eastern Ukraine and start again in a couple years is the worst possible scenario as far as NATO is concerned. It will cause an arms race, and it allows Russia to absorb it’s losses (economic, material, and manpower) in a way that avoids critical problems.

Ukraine is in a horrible spot between two giants, one is despicable and the other is willing to defend itself with the utilitarian moral guide of the ends justifying the means.