Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5% – DW – 02/20/2025
www.dw.com
NASA cuts calculations of asteroid large enough to wipe out a whole city striking Earth in half. The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

  • jj4211@lemmy.worldEnglish
    51·
    1 day ago

    The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

    I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

    • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.orgEnglish
      5·
      22 hours ago

      I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it’s not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

      They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it’s share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly