(I don’t know why, but part of me’s saying the quantum bubble isn’t gonna last long. Its probably the fact the AI bubble is still going - when that bursts, the sheer economic devastation it’ll cause will likely burst the quantum bubble as well.)

In this paper, Gutmann is telling cryptographers not to worry too much about quantum computing. Though cryptographers have still been on the case for a couple of decades, just in case there’s a breakthrough.

Cryptographers do tend to be paranoid about threats to encryption. Given how every single government’s hellbent on breaking it or bypassing it, I can’t blame them on that front.

The AI bubble launched with a super-impressive demo called ChatGPT, and quantum computing doesn’t have anything like that. There are no products. But the physics experiments are very pretty.

Moreover, quantum can’t really break into the consumer market like AI has. AI had slopgens of all stripes and supposedly sky-high adoption (through [forcing it on everyone](https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/how-big-tech-is-force-feeding-us https://awful.systems/post/5348844)), quantum’s gonna have none of that.

(I don’t see the general public falling for the quantum hype, either, given how badly they got burned by the AI hype.)