America's own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs
www.kielinstitut.de
Contrary to US government rhetoric, the cost of US import tariffs are not borne by foreign exporters. Instead, they hit the American economy itself. Importers and consumers in the US bear 96 percent of the tariff burden, according to new research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Here is the study download: Americaʼs Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - (pdf)

  • Contrary to US government rhetoric, the cost of US import tariffs are not borne by foreign exporters. Instead, they hit the American economy itself. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.

  • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.

  • US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.

  • Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead.

  • Indian export customs data validates our findings: when facing US tariffs, Indian exporters maintained their prices and reduced shipments. They did not “eat” the tariff.