• Eccitaze@yiffit.net
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    10 months ago

    Yeah, literally the only pathway to ruling Trump is not barred is by throwing out the entire finding of fact by the Colorado supreme court that Trump engaged in an insurrection. It’s not impossible since appellate courts do technically have this power, but appellate courts are usually supposed to give extreme deference to lower courts when it comes to their findings of fact–the standard from my brief bit of research is that the lower court’s findings must be “clearly erroneous.”

    So given how batshit our current court is I expect at least two surefire no votes from Thomas and Alito. Gorsuch is probably a yes vote given how much of a strict textualist he’s turned out to be, as are the entire liberal bloc. Ironically, Roberts is yet again the most likely swing vote, and I honestly don’t know if he’d sign off on disqualifying him. I could see anything from 7-2 in favor of upholding to 5-4 or 6-3 overturning. Considering their recent signal in the form of denying Smith’s request for expedited review, I’m… honestly not optimistic.

    • Jaysyn@kbin.social
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      10 months ago

      Considering their recent signal in the form of denying Smith’s request for expedited review, I’m… honestly not optimistic.

      Wasn’t this 9-0 unanimous?

      • Eccitaze@yiffit.net
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        10 months ago

        We don’t know, all we know iirc is that at least four justices said “nah bro go through the regular appeals process.” So reading the tea leaves, at least Thomas and Alito, plus any two of Gorsuch, Roberts, ACB, and Kavanaugh said no, at minimum.

        It’s hard to say with certainty what this signals about how they’ll rule on the various Trump cases, but at minimum it indicates that they either don’t realize that he’s trying to delay the trials in the hopes he can win the election and have them all dropped, or they don’t care that’s what he’s doing. If they really_don’t_ care, it could be because they approve of his actions–and will likely rule in his favor–or simply because they value strict adherence to the regular process even at the potential risk of allowing an unqualified candidate (in the actual constitutional sense) obtaining office and doing whatever damage he can. None of those reasons bode very well for this particular case, IMO.