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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • It’s kind of already crashing:
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=5Y
    The Ruble came under stress immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 22nd 2022.
    As you can see there a steep drop below 1 cent, then Russia takes a number of immediate actions to support the Ruble, and the value increased to 1.84 cent.
    All these actions they took in early 2022 are still in force, yet the Ruble continues to decline, and in a little over 2 years, it has almost halved in value, despite Russian efforts to support it.
    If you look at the past 3 months on the graph, you can see a very obvious decline, even when the Central Bank increased Interest rates significantly 3 times from 16% to 21%.
    The Ruble is weak, and the hikes in interest rates that should stabilize it, are not effective and are undermined by the Russian economy simply being awful, and Putin becoming economically irresponsible.
    By comparison most western Central/National banks have lowered interest rates, for instance the European Central Bank has lowered rates 3 times this year to now 3.4%:
    https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate
    Russia is unable to control inflation and currency rates, in an environment where the economies surrounding them are stable. So this is exclusively a Russian problem the imposed on themselves.

    Sorry for rambling. 😋




  • No that’s a false narrative, the criminal cases are based on public prosecutors running them.
    What you are claiming is for civil suits, of which a couple have been settled, despite obstruction attempts by Trump.
    If it gets to a point where a politician can ask public prosecutors to put opponents in jail, USA has long ceased to be a democracy.

    Trump is already a convicted criminal, and cannot vote in several states, still he can run for president, and enjoy privileged treatment.
    Where an ordinary person voting because she was told she could, got 5 years prison for voter fraud!


  • No, Nixon stepped down because of Watergate, you won’t see similar honesty from Republicans today.
    They are exploiting the judicial system, and to Prosecute Trump for things he did in the open as president to enrich himself and his family isn’t pursued, even now after 8 years.
    After Nixon the Republicans decided to try to control the courts and the political narrative, so they never would lose a case either legally or in the public eye like Watergate again.
    Republicans have been systematically undermining USA for 5 decades now.

    It’s way past the time to stop it, If Harris doesn’t win, and start the process towards legal and political normalcy, it could easily be to late.




  • Yes the Russian national bank is handling this very well, and that helps prevent hyperinflation.
    Technically hyperinflation is 50% monthly inflation for at least 1 month. But there may be other definitions?

    But if the Russian government persist in stressing the economy beyond what it can handle, there is a breaking point, where hyperinflation is a possibility, and not even their brilliantly led central bank can prevent it.

    Putin is obviously not as smart as we once thought, and he is out of good options. He may not be able to deal with this effectively, maybe not even rationally. He may turn to Hitler strategies, where Hitler moved military forces that didn’t exist around on the map. But Putin might do it with the economy too.

    There have been indications that Putin is living in a fantasy world, where he thinks he can bend reality by force of will.




  • This is probably the clearest indicator we have that the Russian economy is really struggling.

    This is the highest key interest rate in Russia since it was introduced

    It’s just about 3 months ago the Russian central bank increased interest from 16 to 18%, and about a month that it was increased to 19%, and now to 21%! That’s a HUGE increase in very short time.

    The central bank said in a statement that “growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.

    Meaning the economy can’t handle the demands put on it by the war on Ukraine.

    inflation expectations continue to increase.

    Meaning the value of wages is undermined. Making the average Russian poorer.

    Nabiullina noted that inflation has overshot the goals because of increased government spending

    Meaning the government is over spending, and the economy can’t sustain current levels.

    As I mentioned last time, it’s notable that the Ruble doesn’t increase significantly in value after these increases. As I have claimed earlier, this is a sign it will get worse, and it’s gotten worse as predicted, and it will continue to get worse until the Russian economy collapses, or overspending ends because the war against Ukraine ends.

    EDIT:
    For comparison Ukraine had interest rates above 20% in 2022 and 2023:
    https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/interest-rate

    But Ukraine was invaded and is getting it under control, probably in part due to foreign aid, now it’s a more moderate 13%
    So Ukraine is stabilizing, while Russia is getting worse.



  • It’s just boring, and defeats the purpose of good story telling IMO. It’s either uninteresting showing very little, or it’s like porn, and when I watch a movie, I’m generally not in the mood for porn.
    If they had great sex, it may not mean the same to everybody. But if you show them at a later point, like breakfast or something, and they are glowing and smiling bigly to each other, we all know what happened, and how it went.