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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Since the coup in 2021, no country has invited nor welcomed Junta head Min Aung Hlaing (MAL) as an official head of a country. Chinese have invited other generals of the Junta for official visits, but has snubbed MAL thus far, and MAL has understandably sought Chinese invitation. The only place MAL has visited abroad since the coup has been Russia to visit arms shows or for arms purchases. For each visit, he was NOT treated as a head of state by Russia but as an official guest of the Russian military only, and was not met by politicians but by Russian generals to further re-inforce the lack of recognition. It would be interesting to see HOW MAL’s visit will be treated by Beijing. IF he is received by Chinese premier as this report suggests, that would indeed be the official recognition of the Junta by China as government of Myanmar.

    2nd point - should this visit by MAL to China takes place, it would further reinforce suspicions that a major deal or understanding had taken place between the Junta and China since Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to Myanmar in August this year. Since that visit, we have seen a policy shift from Beijing, urging militias under its influence to stop fighting against Junta. MAL declared that he would protect Chinese assets and citizens in Myanmar. Today’s news of scam center arrests are further indication of MAL cow-towing to China’s will. In the coming months we have to wait and see just what MAL and Junta has conceded to China in exchange for Chinese support in its struggle vs anti-junta forces.




  • TLDR: leaked document circulating online about China’s recent meeting with top officials of the 30,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA) where China explicitly told UWSA to stop selling arms to Myanmar’s resistance forces. China also re-states its position regarding ethnic Han Chinese guerilla force MNDAA - for it to give up seized cities back to Junta control, non-cooperation with NUG and Western nations and employing five-cuts [electricity, gas, water, internet, supplies] to MNDAA territories to enforce its demands. [Shan state villages and towns near Chinese border under the control of Chinese-backed guerillas are economically integrated with China using Chinese currency and infrastructure to function]. The author who’s the editor of the Shan Herald News believes the document to be authentic as it is in line with Chinese policy shift since August. He believes it was released by the Chinese side on purpose.





  • I am a bit puzzled at European response to the Ukraine invasion. The initial support was slow (obviously due to economic ties to Russia). It took sometime to galvanize some meat into the assistance being provided to Ukraine. Still not seeing leadership being taken on this issue by any of the bigger NATO nations (i.e. Germany, France). Part of this I suspect is that they are playing it smart by letting US take the leadership AND fund the Ukrainian defense thus costing them little. Part of it is perhaps the belief that Russia won’t touch non-former USSR countries. But what European countries should realize is, the current world order depends on respecting the borders. If one country is allowed to take territories from another by hot conflict, we’re going to see more of this elsewhere in the world, including in Europe! Threat of war, and wars are the enemy of trade, investment, and economic growth. It will impact Europe directly or indirectly.