Japan experienced a long term period of deflation during its “Lost Decade”. China’s currently in a deflationary spiral, which kicked off in 2023 and ran for most of the year.
China is a perfect example of an economy with deflation or dangerously low inflation. In 2023, China recorded a successive series of declines in its CPI, which began to fall in January 2023 and continued till July 2023, dropping from 104 points in January to 102.7 points in July. CPI improved for the next two months but dropped again in October and November 2023. In December 2023, it marked the longest streak of CPI declines in China since 2009. Similarly, the producer price index (PPI) has been in contraction for more than a year. According to Bloomberg Economics, the biggest contributor to the decline in CPI in China was falling food prices as the food prices plunged for six consecutive months from July 2023 to December 2023, dropping from -0.155 to -0.618. Among food, pork prices saw the biggest decline which plunged 26% in December 2023.
Another big economic issue in China is its property market crisis. On January 30, The New York Times reported that China’s home sales dropped by 6.5% and real estate development plunged by 9.6% in 2023, as per the Chinese investment bank, Dongxing Securities Corp Limited (SHA:601198). In December alone, property sales were down by 17.1% year-over-year. The chief economist at Natixis, Alicia Garcia Herrero said the property market has not touched bottom yet. Herrero emphasized, “There is still a long way to go.” The property market crash in China has impacted many firms and over 50 Chinese property firms have defaulted on debt, including the two market giants: The China Evergrande Group (OTC:EGRNQ) and Country Garden Holdings Co Limited (HKG:2007).
Thailand, Libya, Jordan, Bolivia, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Denmark, Italy… Export-oriented countries can periodically find themselves glutted with their own surplus when supply lines break down and foreign markets fail to absorb the excess.
Shouldn’t be a surprise that China, being a global export leader, is caught in the thick of it due to the emerging US/China trade war and the shut down of the Suez Canal.
Here’s a few examples
Japan experienced a long term period of deflation during its “Lost Decade”. China’s currently in a deflationary spiral, which kicked off in 2023 and ran for most of the year.
Thailand, Libya, Jordan, Bolivia, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Denmark, Italy… Export-oriented countries can periodically find themselves glutted with their own surplus when supply lines break down and foreign markets fail to absorb the excess.
Shouldn’t be a surprise that China, being a global export leader, is caught in the thick of it due to the emerging US/China trade war and the shut down of the Suez Canal.