In a rare "time-critical" decision, the James Webb Space Telescope will study the true size of the "potentially hazardous" asteroid 2024 YR4 twice over the next few months. The asteroid has a roughly 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
Even if it’s at the top end of the predicted range, an impact would be ~40MT equivalent. Enough to level a city, but not an extinction event by any means; plus the likely impact path is across central America, the Atlantic, central Africa and north India - not really regions that have the resources to respond to a threat like this. Personally I’m hoping it misses, because I don’t see the counties that could do something about it stepping up right now, so you’d be looking at maybe 100 million people displaced from their homes and an insurmountable humanitarian crisis
In midst of all this funnymaking, I’d like to point out for the record that anybody who genuinely wants it to hit Earth is fucking insane. Some combination of sociopath and psychopath.
The only scenario in which I would really want it to hit would be if it would lead to moderate global cooling without hitting populated areas. If it can dislodge enough particulates over one of the poles to block out some sun and give us a couple of years of reprieve from global warming, without actually killing anyone or destroying much wildlife, that would be nice.
Probably not every 4 years. After 2032, Earth will not be near the intersection point of the two orbits for a while. It might be decades before it’s even close.
Even if it’s at the top end of the predicted range, an impact would be ~40MT equivalent. Enough to level a city, but not an extinction event by any means; plus the likely impact path is across central America, the Atlantic, central Africa and north India - not really regions that have the resources to respond to a threat like this. Personally I’m hoping it misses, because I don’t see the counties that could do something about it stepping up right now, so you’d be looking at maybe 100 million people displaced from their homes and an insurmountable humanitarian crisis
It goes without saying that this is all because of <enter your deity name here> disapproval of <enter your hated group here>.
And the flyby is a test of ‘deity’s’ approval of our next actions. Either way we should immediately lower taxes on the rich.
/s
In midst of all this funnymaking, I’d like to point out for the record that anybody who genuinely wants it to hit Earth is fucking insane. Some combination of sociopath and psychopath.
The only scenario in which I would really want it to hit would be if it would lead to moderate global cooling without hitting populated areas. If it can dislodge enough particulates over one of the poles to block out some sun and give us a couple of years of reprieve from global warming, without actually killing anyone or destroying much wildlife, that would be nice.
Well what if it hits Dallas, or Riyadh? That would probably slow down oil production.
I wonder if an impact in the middle of the oil fields in like Ghawar ir Kuwait would be enough.
It would be an ice agea where crops fail, people starve and we go back to business as usual.
Most countries on Earth would treat this as a global catastrophe and put up funds regardless of where it’s projected to impact.
Maybe not the current US, though.
The US will do it. For money.
Even if it misses, it has a chance to come back every 4 years
Probably not every 4 years. After 2032, Earth will not be near the intersection point of the two orbits for a while. It might be decades before it’s even close.
So like American elections
Its not that catastrophic.
I’m Indian and I’m OK with this hitting North India lol
Or Pakistan
Either is fine.
What happens if it crashes into Sahara? Do we get glass desert?