Shout out to that time in 1998 when

I thought I was in for the worlds worst u/shittymorph attempt for a second.

I disagree. If things went the way we think they should have gone humanity shouldn’t even exist. Billions of years ago some alien race should have mined out this entire solar system.

The fact that we are here and we have no solid evidence of aliens shows that something is very wrong with our understanding. Distances mean nothing when you have billions of years even without magical FTL travel.

Put some basic numbers to it. The oldest piece of metal (shapes by humans) we have found is about 7,000 years. I am going to make it worse and assume that there is metal we didn’t find 10k years ago. With nuclear propulsion ship the nearest star is reachable. Let’s assume it takes us with travel time 5,000 years to do this. Humanity goes from copper to two star systems in 15k years.

Now earth is going to be lazy and wait another 15k years before doing this feat again. Our new colony needs to grow so I am going to give them 15k years as well. We got a pace now. The star systems we have will double every 15k years.

Let’s round down assuming some colonies fail and it makes the numbers easier. In 150k years humanity has 1k star systems. As a point of reference that is about the time difference between us and the first homo sapiens sapiens. In 300k years we have hit a million. At 450k years a billion. About 550k years, depending on how many stars there are in the galaxy, every star is now populated. 1/1000th of the time required from the Cambrian explosion until now.

From our understanding life was possible in our galaxy many billions of years ago. On average stars have 1.2 planets. There are about 100-400 billion stars in our galaxy. Of those about .2% are candidates for life. Based on our solar system there is about a 20% chance of life given the right conditions. From our dataset of 1 it takes 4 billion years to get sentient tool making social animals. Low end estimates of the number of aliens like us number in the thousands AT THIS MOMENT.

Again. We should not exist. Something is very wrong with our models. I am positive we will find the answer one day and I am betting it is going to break a whole bunch of theories.

What’s also significant is the extreme lack of evidence for any of the claims being made.

Huh

I’ve been watching a really good documentary about this and the entire situation is very complex. There’s a combination of active government coverups and false information to confuse the situation. Anyone who finds out too much is at risk of being discredited or killed. You should look it up, it’s very high quality. It’s called the X-Files.

They apparently always manage to get to crash sites before the locals do and manage to somehow quickly and quietly extract every little piece of debris spread across several square miles without anyone noticing.

It’s just not realistic.

On top of that, every country in the world would have to be collaborating in keeping it a secret since the US of A isn’t some special place where they uniquely occur.

Occam’s Razor leads me to believe its yet another conspiracy theory.

You also have to believe that UFOs have a worse crash rate than commercial aircraft.

My question is, if any of this is true, why haven’t we been able to observe any such activity in space? You’d think if there were regular occurrences of “alien” activity on Earth, that all of our planet’s considerable astronomical observational power would observe corresponding activity in the area around the planet.

They can’t even keep a secret of where the presidents penis is.

Which he seemed eager to present if he could get in a scif with them.

Will we ever know those info ? We might only know in a couple of weeks, or a couple of decades. But if he was flat lying and then gets into a scif, tells more lies to congress, his ass gonna end up in jail real soon.

Putting all the focus on Grusch is a mistake when there was verifiable video footage and radar to match multiple eyewitness accounts for the Nimitz/Tic Tac event. There was a good foundation established for the need to address the near-misses between the UAP and airforce as well as commercial aircraft. People can just pocket or dismiss Grusch’s claims, but that’s not all there is to this subject…

What do you make of Comander Fravor’s testimony on the Nimitz/Tic Tac event, in which there were multiple eyes on the object, video footage, and radar that was all in line with the reported event? (The radar data was seized by high-ranking Navy officials, if you believe the words of the Cheif Radar Operator on the Nimitz that day)

Seems unreasonable to totally dismiss the possibility of non-human intelligent life, especially when scientists/organizations like UAPx are taking it seriously and have been analyzing the Nimitz videos. There’s also the Galileo Project at Harvard, which believes they may have recovered manufactured material from an interstellar object (believed to have been aided by propulsion) from the ocean floor off Papua New Guinea. Scientists and physicists are starting to give this subject credence (not necessarily Grusch’s claims, but all of the other information and evidence) and I disagree with the literal anti-intellectual rejection of all information because of one man’s claims.

This National Geographic docuseries on Hulu really made me confront the notion that there may be some truth to the idea that there are more advanced non-humans out there. This documentary isn’t like the big-haired History Channel nonsense… It is based off of declassified reports, credible former government officials, military, airforce, etc. Highly recommend at least just giving that first episode free on YouTube a shot.

Here is The Falcon Lake incident, in which there was physical evidence corroborating the eyewitness report. Included in the physical evidence was irradiated scrap metal melted into a rock at the claimed landing site, and an irradiated coin. He also had physical wounds from the event that corroborated his claims, and he fell very ill immediately after.

Unless you think we had a nuclear-powered aircraft like that in 1967, a simpler explanation really might be that hyper-advanced nonhuman entities may exist. Now, that doesn’t mean all or any of Grusch’s claims are true. I’m not even touching on that when there is already so much compelling information out there.

I’m not going to pretend we’re anywhere close to having all the answers as a species. We’re just hairless apes that are too smart for are own good, but not as smart as we think we are. Healthy criticism is a good thing, but dismissing everything outright is not. I consider myself a very skeptical person. But it’s not up for debate whether or not our government had a UAP monitoring program. That has been established, having been created by Harry Reid. That’s been established fact since 2017.

Whether or not they are of human-origin, UAP do exist and therefore should be studied. Here is some declassified UAP footage other than the widely covered Nimitz encounter.

Here is a very compelling photograph that a National Geographic mapping plane captured in 1971, during a project funded by the Costa Rican Electricity Institute. They believed they captured a flying disc at the moment of entry or exit of the water, as the camera captured a photo about every 13 seconds. It was estimated to be about 160ft in diameter.

These metalic orbs have been observed all over the world, they have no obvious signs of propulsion, and our government has admitted this is not our tech, and that it’s beyond our capabilities.

There is a YouTube channel with years worth of apparent footage of these orbs tagging and being pursued by aircraft (from the Navy to the Sherrif’s department choppers equipped with infrared cameras). I don’t agree with all of this individual’s views, but his footage is in line with the accounts of pilots and some of the declassified footage. It’s definitely not verified, but it’s there for the people who ask “Why isn’t anyone capturing these things on film?” This guy has been allegedly recording these around Marina Del Rey since 2017.

Let’s not forget project Blue Book, General John Samford’s address, the Congressional UFO hearings 50+ years ago, and the information available in the national archives… Here is a French government/military/civilian scientific collaborative study on the subject from 1978 (PDF warning), which determined the most reasonable explanation for the objects was the E.T. hypothesis (their conclusion). Not to mention this tidbit from Canada recently:

“A Manitoba member of Parliament wrote Canada’s minister of defence this spring suggesting the country has participated in a secret multi-nation program devoted to “the recovery and exploitation” of material from unidentified aerial phenomenon, more commonly known as unidentified flying objects or UFOs.”

In the face of all this information, I now am at this impasse in which I’m forced to consider that it’s actually more reasonable to believe there are other, more intelligent species in the universe. It’s one thing to argue this is secret human tech we’re seeing right now, but it’s outlandish to me to consider the notion that we had tech like this going back to the 40s… or even just dating back to the Falcon Lake incident.

There were mass sightings across the US to the point that our Airforce openly acknowledged their existence and initiated Project Blue Book. There’s just no way that was our tech back then, right around the time in which we first discovered the power of the atom. There’s no way we had atomic flying aircraft without any obvious signs of propulsion, rapid acceleration, and moving at enormous speeds without breaking the sound barrier dating back earlier than the 50s…

I personally reached the tipping point in which I genuinely believe it’s less reasonable to deny the existence of UAP. Characteristics of these UAP have remained consistent across decades, our government has admitted they exist, secret black projects have been uncovered, many documents have been declassified and leaked… I find it much harder to believe that all of this consistency across decades is merely coincidence.

If anyone reading this truly considers themselves a rational skeptic, please at least watch the first episode of the documentary I linked and read the information from my comment before responding to me.

“But how could the government keep it a secret!”

Your post is exactly how.

Instead of saying “ok let’s see if this guy is telling the truth” we have “pfftt, aliens aren’t real, take off the tinfoil hat.”

Ridiculously effective.

And all of these harmed and murdered people conveniently have no relatives speaking up about it either lol. It’s always hand wavey and lacking evidence.

So you don’t think Congress should look into funds being diverted into some black operation then someone’s pocket with 0 oversight?

People still bring up the ““spy”” balloons despite the fact the US gov has basically pulled back on everything it said about them, it’s so fucking weird, they were just boring weather balloons but they were used to cause such a ridiculous amount of drama.

Everyone’s standard for evidence is basically crap. No evidence required just need some guys to say “yeaaaah totally, trust me bro” and that’s that. This lack of any standards for evidence is leads to people believing made up bullshit like Iraq having WMDs as a justification for war. It allows them to put testimonies of things out there and people will just believe them on testimony with no actual material evidence required.

I mean, I’m no conspiracy nut or UFO true believer or anything, but the simple fact is that aerial photography is nowhere near that simple or easy.

I live directly under the flight path for the local airbase, and about twice a week I have F-35s fly overhead. I basically know the schedule, and I usually try to take a picture of them, but despite it being a routine occurrence that I know to prepare for, I’ve only managed to get a handful of pictures, and of those pictures, they’re almost all small and blurry squintovision. They’re better than bigfoot photos but not by much. With my naked eye, I’m close enough to pick out individual features on the airframe and see if the the gear is up or down, and if they have anything on wing pylons, etc. But my actual pictures? Usually come out something like this. Now imagine you’re trying to do that for a target 5 miles distant rather than just a few hundred feet overhead, and it only gets worse.

And the thing is that yes, the military does have a lot of eyes on the sky, but as they pointed out in the hearings, there exists no mechanism for making reports of UAP, collating and collecting the relevant radar and sensor data, and then trying to figure out what it was. If you talk about UAPs, you’re going to get laughed out of the room if not sidelined into a career dead end.

Like even ignoring the possibility of aliens, and assuming that this is just some unknown atmospheric effect (that shows up on multiple different radar systems, FLIR, and optics), it’s still worth gathering that data so we can find out what’s going on. Investigating odd phenomena is great for our scientific understanding of the world around us. Right now we don’t have a mechanism for Pilot A to say “Hey, that blip on radar did strange behaviors X, Y, and Z” and then the relevant sensor data is collected into a format for use by meteorologists or whomever.

99.9 repeating % of the time, it’s just going to be something innocuous like what all the civilian UFO reports are of “in these specific atmospheric conditions, we get an optical illusion of a cubical cloud” Locals in LA think that the borg are invading, but from other angles, the cloud just looks slightly funny rather than a cube. Or they mistake a drone formation for some impossible alien craft. But when we have trained military observers who are all saying the same thing and we’re seeing data from our most advanced military sensors, it’s a different matter entirely.

That’s why I’m so mono-focussed on the tictac report, because in that example we have radar tracks from 4 seperate system types (AN/SPY on the USS Princeton, AN/SPS and AN/SPQ on the USS Nimitz, either APS-125 or APS-139 for an E-2 Hawkeye, and the AN/APG-73 on the F-18s) These were all cited as having been there and tracking the tictac, and reported that it descended from 80,000 feet to sea level in a matter of moments, and when the F-18s are sent out, that’s when we get the encounter that David Fravor describes. Alex Dietrich, the pilot in the wingplane of Fravor’s flight also described the same encounter, complete with “I don’t consider myself a whistle blower … I don’t identify as a UFO person,” but despite that disclaimer, she still ends up collaborating his story for how the tictac behaved.

So there we have no fewer than 6 separate radar sets, of which at least 4 sources are different models so we can pretty safely rule out operator error or code glitch, the eyes of 2 seperate F18s pilots, one at high elevation, one that moved to intercept and they all describe the behavior of the tictac as moving impossibly to how we understand physics. Later on in a followup flight, they stick the FLIR pod on one of the F18s and we get the video that doesn’t show very much, and we know for a fact that what’s shown on that video isn’t the full duration of it.

Now let’s throw UFOs out of the equation entirely. Assume that it’s only some kind of atmospheric anomaly like ball lightning or something. Isn’t that still something that’s incredibly cool and worth investigation? If something can act like that, let’s figure out what it is and how it does it. And if it is aliens, then congratulations, we have the most important discovery in the history of mankind on our hands. And if it isn’t aliens, then we’ve merely done a lot of cool science and made both commercial and military aviation safer by explaining what these are and if/how they are a danger. And that’s what this congressional meeting was about. Setting up official channels so that when pilots run into things like this they can report it and we can start to aggregate the data and figure out what’s going on. And on the other side of the equation is investigating DoD black projects that may or may not be pretending to be aliens (we know they did this with the original stealth programs, complete with MIB suits visiting the local skywatchers and telling them very specifically that it WASN’T UFOs, and thus distracting attention away from the stealth planes.) and letting the American government know what the fuck is actually going on in our military that ostensibly works for us.

The military does not have a good track record of being transparent with the public.

We still study chimpanzees, ants, coral, bees, prarie dogs and any number of other social animals.

If you’re working from the assumption that the tictacs are aliens then “the Earth and humans aren’t interesting” isn’t the best of places to stake your claim.

I’ve been pretty clear over my various posts on this topic that I don’t think that this is actual aliens, but whatever it is is something that is worth investigating to improve our understand of science and the universe. And Fravor’s main point was that there isn’t a good way for pilots to say “I saw weird thing X midflight” without getting exiled to career Siberia over UFO alarmism. So the hope is to set up a centralized data collection and collation center so that the reports can be assembled together, the data looked at with scientific rigor and the science advanced.

Grusch was the one who went full XCOM “they’re here and we have the crashed ships and bodies” conspiracy theorist. Without the extraordinary proof that his extraordinary claims require, we can safely ignore him, save for maybe using the UFO nuts to shine some light on the corruption and waste on the black projects he alleges exist outside of congressional control. Yanno, get some of our sprawling secret projects back under command of the actual civilian government like they’re ostensibly supposed to be.

yeah the thought of something coming across interstellar distances and worrying about what defences and weapons we have is absolutely absurd, they could just go pick up a space rock containing more resource than we’ve ever mined and nudge it gently towards Earth - or give it a bit of a shove if they want to just obliterate the planet so they can quietly collect the resources from a cloud of mushed up space rocks.

there are reasons to come to earth, collectors in alien cultures would likely want to collect some of the unique animals that have evolved here, since we’re killing them all at an alarming rate it would make sense they’d be in a rush to evacuate breeding colonies for their zoos ‘they last living remains of a planet boiled alive by it’s greedy semi-intelligent life’ or for a lot of reasons they might want to study us - comedy and tragedy most likely but maybe just scientific interest also. It doesn’t make much sense for them seemingly trying to hide their presence but being so bad at it and apparently crashing all the time.

It’s also possible that we just happen to be a on the edges of a war far vaster than we can even imagine, fleets of billions of giant ships exploding and crashing into each other with escape pods and crashed fighters flung out in every direction - this is the only reasonable reason i can think of for so many ships to have apparently crashed here, it might turn out that everything in our solar system is littered with bits of exploded or crashed craft from this war and that we’re dumb for not noticing sooner. It doesn’t seem likely to me but it’s the only type of explanation i can really think of for why we’d have as much evidence of aliens as people like Grusch are claiming

That wasn’t my take on it. Maybe we are thinking of different scenes in the movie - sorry, different points in the hearing - but I understood the question was “is it POSSIBLE they are a threat” not “do you actively think they are a threat” or whatever. Subtle but super important difference.

Not to put too fine a point on it, while I don’t believe Grusch, I think he’s a full on conspiracy nut, I will acknowledge that he was exceedingly careful to not break any laws with how he came forward and reported this. Edward Snowden and other similar whistleblowers got criminalized by doing so in an illegal fashion. When you whistleblow legally, (see: Lt Colonel Vindman in the Trump trial) you don’t get exiled to Russia.

I’ll be honest, I think that Grusch is a UFO nut who managed to work his way up the ranks and eventually get into power in a govt agency that is nominally supposed to be investigating spooky stuff like the tictacs and got mad that the rest of the agency wasn’t onboard with his conspiracy theory nuttyness and is basically trying to weaponize a congressional investigation against his former colleagues because they wouldn’t believe him. I err on the side of believing Commander Fravor, as his tale has been verified by the other pilot in the flight, and apparently has like 6 seperate radar tracks backing it up. It’s Grusch who’s going full conspiracy theory.

if they turn out to be from another earth species then my money is on the Ants.

I don’t know why I keep needing to repeat this, but I DON’T THINK IT WAS SPACE ALIENS.

I’ve been pretty clear about that from the start here, although I guess after re-reading my first post in the thread, it was a little less explicit about that fact than it could have been. Maybe I should have put it at the top rather than in the middle, and also written it in 100’ tall letters of fire.

We don’t know what happened in the tictac event, and of the other two, Grusch went full on conspiracy theorist nutjob and the other pilot had a similar but less credible story, mostly in that he wasn’t backed up after the fact by other pilots. David Fravor’s account was backed up by other pilots, and the other pilot to back him up explicitly disavowed herself from being a UFO person, while still backing what Fravor said.

I also focus on that event because it’s the one that had six separate sets of radar on it, so out of all of them, it undoubtedly has the best sensor readings of any of the ones we know. The radar tracks that Fravor describes, with the tictacs descending from 80’000 feet down to sea level in a matter of moments, if released, would either immediately validate or discredit his claims, and the fact that it happened across so many different sensor types and systems also means that in the astronomically more likely event of it being some weird atmospheric phenomena that we’ve never scientifically documented or validated, also would have much more data to begin preliminary investigations with.

Like that’s the real benefit here, is the scientific research that can be done, and the collation and collection of the data about these events under a single roof where it can be looked and expand the boundaries of human knowledge. If these phenomena are as common as the two pilots allege, then it’s something we need to know about, for the simple purpose of making air traffic safer if nothing else, and if they are lying through their teeth, then releasing the radar tracks proves it. Either way, it should be done.

Are extra dimensional aliens really the simplest explanation for “Drunk man is burned, and finds radioactive stuff in the woods”?

Asking questions like “what do you think of this?” means nothing. It’s one dude’s experience decades ago. There was lots of irradiated stuff from back then. We were literally nuking shit just to see what would happen.

The problem with UFO enthusiasts is that they think they are qualified to guess what happened. At this point it’s unknown what happened to that guy, or these pilots. “Unknown” doesn’t equal aliens any more than it equals angels or my cousin Bob.

Burned metal doesn’t mean anything. Surely someone examined it. Why don’t they mention its composition? It’s probably some basic metal that would never be from outer space. Spaceships are made of some crazy shit to deal with extreme heat and low pressure.

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You should definitely watch today’s hearings. They were bonkers.

Sensor glitches, reflections on cockpit glass, small close up things that seem far away and large. There are so many explanations that make more sense than physics defying aliens that are naturally blurry.

Good thing phone cameras aren’t the only cameras.

The world is constantly under monitoring from hundreds of different groups. At least one of them would have produced a video is it existed.

They maybe aren’t ideal, but they’d be good enough that we’d have thousands of videos by now. You might not be able to tell exactly what’s there, but you would be able to correlate them all and have pretty definitive proof. That hasn’t happened yet though, so clearly there’s an issue with the initial hypothesis. Maybe something like it being aliens makes no damn sense. How would they be able to get here but also need to fly aircraft around. We can watch what’s happening on earth from space with fairly high detail and we have trouble just leaving our atmosphere.